AI Research Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs)7/8/2026

Does Bielik Know What It Doesn't Know? Activation Dispersion Separates Entity Familiarity from Factual Reliability Across Model Scale

Large language models hallucinate most about entities they have never seen. We ask whether a model's activations betray entity familiarity before a single answer token is generated, and whether that signal predicts the factual reliability of the answers. On four Polish Bielik models (1.5B-11B parameters), we probe four entity domains (athletes, cities, writers, musicians), each with 42 well-known, 42 obscure-but-real, and 42 fabricated entities addressed by a one-sentence question (504 prompts per model). Two unsupervised, single-forward-pass dispersion measures over post-SwiGLU MLP activations, inverse participation ratio and spectral entropy, separate known from fabricated entities at AUROC 0.95-1.00 across all domains and scales; a supervised linear probe reaches 0.99-1.00. Both clear selection-aware permutation floors of about 0.70-0.74 (empirical p<=1e-3), survive held-out layer selection (0.93-0.99), and persist on real names (known vs. obscure-but-real: 0.96-1.00). The signal transfers across entity types (mean off-diagonal AUROC 0.92-0.99); a matched-template counterfactual shows the only large drops are template-caused, not entity-type effects, and the signal is diffuse across heads. This representational signal is already at ceiling at 1.5B, whereas behavioral factual reliability scales sharply: 0, 2, 10, and 19 of 42 known athletes are answered fully correctly by the 1.5B, 4.5B, 7B, and 11B models under a strict judge. Within known entities, separating correct from hallucinated answers is much harder (probe 0.93; dispersion no better than a first-token-entropy baseline). A five-sample semantic-entropy baseline reaches only 0.71-0.83 at 5x the inference cost. Despite this internal awareness, the models almost never abstain: an audit of 2,520 answers finds 2 refusals and 1 hedge. Entity familiarity and factual reliability are distinct phenomena on different scaling curves.

Large Language Models (LLMs)7/8/2026

Future Confidence Distillation in Large Language Models

Reliable confidence estimation is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in confidence-aware systems, where downstream decisions such as retrieval, tool use, and adaptive computation depend on accurately estimating answer reliability. Existing approaches, however, largely treat confidence as a property of completed responses, overlooking how confidence-related information evolves throughout the answering process. In this work, we investigate confidence from a temporal perspective by comparing pre-solution Feeling-of-Knowing (FOK) and post-solution Judgement-of-Learning (JOL) confidence estimates across frontier and open-source LLMs. We show that post-solution confidence is consistently better calibrated and more discriminative than pre-solution confidence, while linear probes trained on hidden representations recover substantially richer confidence-related information than models explicitly verbalise. Building on this observation, we introduce future confidence distillation, which trains predictors operating on pre-solution hidden representations using teacher confidence estimates produced by post-solution correctness probes. Despite requiring only pre-solution representations for inference, distilled predictors recover much of the calibration improvement achieved by post-solution confidence, remain highly sample efficient, and transfer across datasets within the same domain. Together, our findings demonstrate that confidence-related information evolves throughout the answering process and can be anticipated before answer generation is complete, enabling significantly more reliable yet low-cost confidence estimation.

Large Language Models (LLMs)7/8/2026

Unveiling Public Opinion: A Study of Sentiment Analysis Using LSTM and Traditional Models

In this age of social media, sites like Twitter have become meeting places for people to share their views and feelings on a wide range of issues and current events as they unfold in real time. Sentiment analysis, a critical application of NLP, has become indispensable due to the massive influx of user-generated content, enabling the extraction of meaningful insights from the opinions and emotions expressed in textual data. Sentiment analysis on Twitter employs sophisticated computational techniques to categorize tweets into positive, negative, or neutral sentiments. This method not only examines individual expressions but also analyzes vast databases related to specific subjects or events. By spotting these emotions, machine learning models help improve public opinion interpretation and trend forecasting. This paper examines the effectiveness of various machine learning and deep learning approaches. Designed for this use, the system evaluates logistic regression, random forest, naïve bayes, gradient boosting, and LSTM networks, among other algorithms applied in sentiment classification. This work identifies the optimal sentiment analysis model using a Kaggle Twitter dataset that has been preprocessed through tokenization, lemmatization, and stopword elimination. Emphasizing the better performance of the LSTM approach, the model attained a training accuracy of 90.98%, a testing accuracy of 80.00%, and a micro-average ROC- AUC score of 0.92. These results show that the model outperforms conventional machine learning techniques in capturing contextual and sequential textual aspects.

Large Language Models (LLMs)7/8/2026

GReFEM: Multimodal LLMs as Zero-Shot Semantic Assistants for Physics-Guided 3D Mesh Refinement

Adaptive volumetric finite element meshing is a critical step in computer-aided engineering and analysis that dictates the computational budget of a given problem. It traditionally requires iterative PDE solvers or heavily supervised, data-driven surrogates trained on large-scale simulation data. While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel in 2D visual tasks, their zero-shot capability to semantically ground regions based on geometric understanding and physics remains an open question. Overall, this study explores a significant question: can the high-level semantic understanding of off-the-shelf MLLMs serve as a viable, zero-shot geometric proxy for finite element mesh refinement? To investigate this, we introduce GReFEM (Geometric Reasoning Enhanced Multimodal LLMs for Finite Element Meshing), a framework that utilizes MLLMs to visually localize stress-critical regions based on physics-guided textual prompts. To bridge the gap between 2D MLLM pre-training and 3D geometries, we introduce orthoViews, a view-selection module that maximizes the observability of key geometric features. We conduct an in-depth empirical evaluation across diverse CAD geometries, loading cases, and SOTA MLLMs, comparing them against a tuned geometric heuristic under a strict, matched refinement budget. Our findings reveal that MLLMs demonstrate robust zero-shot capacity to accurately follow complex spatial-physical instructions, isolating stress-relevant features with higher precision than blind heuristics. By mapping both the successes and current limitations of MLLMs in physical grounding, this study defines the frontier of foundation models as semantic assistants in automated simulation workflows.

Large Language Models (LLMs)7/8/2026

Predicting LLM Safety Before Release by Simulating Deployment

Pre-deployment safety evaluations aim to inform the downstream risks of releasing a new AI model. Yet most evaluations provide limited evidence about how often undesired model behavior will occur in deployment: they generally have insufficient coverage, are unrepresentative, and are generally recognizable as tests. To address these concerns, we study a simple way to simulate a model deployment: starting from de-identified conversations from a previous model deployment, we hold fixed the initial conversation prefix and regenerate the next response using a candidate model. The resulting responses can then both be audited for novel misalignments and used to estimate the prevalence of model misbehavior before deployment. We evaluate deployment simulation across four GPT-5-series deployments, using registered, outcome-blinded predictions for GPT-5.4 and retrospective analyses of three earlier releases. We find that deployment simulation produces informative estimates of post-deployment misbehavior rates and outperforms baselines based on adversarially selected production data; its evaluation-awareness point estimates were also much closer to production traffic than those from traditional evaluations. We also identify the realism of tool resampling as a central challenge for further improving predictions and share results suggesting that this challenge is surmountable even in complex tool-use settings. Finally, we show that deployment simulation can be seeded from public chat datasets and remain informative about production misbehavior rates, suggesting a path for external researchers to run deployment-grounded evaluations without access to private production logs. Overall, deployment simulation helps evaluators forecast how language models will behave in the real world and supports more quantitative assessment of deployment risk.