AI Research Papers

AllLarge Language Models (LLMs)Computer Vision & Image GenerationAudio & Speech SynthesisPrompt Engineering & InferenceAI Agents & ReasoningModel Optimization & QuantizationOther
Other7/8/2026

TimEE: End-to-end Time Series Classification via In-Context Learning

Time series classification (TSC) is dominated by a two-stage paradigm: train a feature encoder -- either from scratch on the target dataset or via pretraining on large corpora -- and then fit a task-specific classifier on top. While effective, this decoupling optimizes representation learning independently of the classification objective, requires per-dataset training, and prevents the model from exploiting label information during inference. We introduce TimEE, a 4.5M-parameter foundation model for end-to-end TSC via in-context learning. Given a labeled support set and a query time series, TimEE directly outputs a predicted class distribution in a single forward pass with no per-dataset training required. Following the prior-data fitted network (PFN) framework, TimEE is meta-trained exclusively on synthetic TSC tasks, where each task contains time series with distinct class identities arising from structured distributional shifts in the generative process. Despite seeing no real time series during pre-training, TimEE ranks first in ROC AUC (and third on accuracy) on the UCR benchmark among all compared methods, which include both foundation models and supervised deep learning baselines. To our knowledge, TimEE is the first purely synthetic-pretrained model to reach state-of-the-art performance on the UCR benchmark. These results establish end-to-end ICL with synthetic priors as a compelling, largely unexplored direction for TSC, with scaling, prior design, and richer generation mechanisms as natural avenues for improvement. Code is publicly available at http://github.com/automl/timee.

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Other7/8/2026

AI-integrated models for assessing agricultural resilience

Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems. We develop an AI-powered tool that integrates economic models (GTAP) with biophysical models (APSIM) to analyze supply chain shocks, enabling policymakers and market participants to assess cross-disciplinary impacts through queries and responses written in natural language.

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Other7/8/2026

Where to Intervene? Benchmarking Fairness-Aware Learning on Differentially Private Synthetic Tabular Data

Machine learning models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, raising concerns about both privacy and fairness. Differential Privacy (DP) has become a gold standard for privacy-preserving data analysis, while fairness-aware mechanisms aim to mitigate discrimination against underrepresented groups. However, these objectives can conflict: DP often amplifies disparities across demographic groups, and little is known about whether established fairness interventions remain effective under DP constraints. In this work, we present, to our knowledge, the first systematic evaluation of fairness interventions on differentially private synthetic tabular data. Our benchmark centers on the Adaptive Iterative Mechanism (AIM), identified as the state-of-the-art marginal-based DP synthesizer (Cormode et al. 2025). We thus evaluate fairness interventions across four datasets, multiple group fairness metrics, and three categories of mitigation strategies (pre-processing, in-processing, and post-processing) under a wide range of privacy budgets. We compare four pipeline configurations: (Baseline) training on original data; (DP-only) training on DP synthetic data; (Fair-only) applying fairness mechanisms on original data; and (DP+Fair) combining fairness mechanisms with DP synthetic data. Our results demonstrate that while DP alone can degrade both utility and fairness, applying fairness interventions can partially restore equitable outcomes. Among them, post-processing methods tend to provide more stable fairness-utility trade-offs across privacy budgets and synthesizers, achieving strong fairness improvements while preserving competitive utility relative to other intervention stages. We release all code, data, and experimental artifacts in an open-source repository to ensure full reproducibility and to support future research on the privacy-fairness-utility trade-off.

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Other7/8/2026

Quantum simulation of real-world nonlinear dynamics via Koopman method

Nonlinear dynamics is ubiquitous in nature, ranging from chemical pattern formation to ocean circulation, yet its simulation on quantum computers is fundamentally limited by the unitary nature of quantum evolution. We propose the quantum Koopman method, a data-driven framework that embeds nonlinear dynamics into a learned linear representation and implements the resulting evolution using shallow quantum circuits. This method learns Koopman observables from trajectory data, projects the lifted dynamics onto a finite-dimensional subspace, and decomposes the corresponding non-unitary propagator into parallel spectral channels. We utilize the Koopman method on a superconducting processor to simulate three distinct nonlinear systems, comprising reaction-diffusion dynamics, fluid motion on a sphere, and satellite-derived observations of Gulf Stream currents, employing up to 32 parallel circuits of 10 qubits. These quantum simulations capture the dominant multiscale patterns and statistical signatures of the underlying dynamics, and reveal a transition from performance limited by hardware noise in weakly nonlinear systems to performance limited by finite-dimensional Koopman representations as nonlinear scale interactions increase. This transition identifies a practical boundary for quantum-amenable nonlinear dynamics, establishing a hardware-validated route for simulating moderately nonlinear dynamics on near-term quantum hardware.

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Other7/8/2026

Hypergraph Neural Stochastic Diffusion: An SDE Framework for Uncertainty Estimation

Hypergraph neural networks have shown powerful capability in modeling higher-order relations, yet their predictive uncertainty remains underexplored. Unlike pairwise graphs, uncertainty in hypergraphs arises not only from noisy attributes and ambiguous labels, but also from variations in node-hyperedge incidence structures and complex higher-order dependencies. Existing approaches mainly estimate uncertainty from final predictions or rely on computationally expensive ensembles and Bayesian inference, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty evolution during representation learning. In this paper, we propose Hypergraph Neural Stochastic Diffusion(HyperNSD), a stochastic differential equation framework for uncertainty estimation on hypergraphs. HyperNSD models hypergraph representations as stochastic processes evolving over node-hyperedge incidence structures. A learnable drift function captures deterministic higher-order diffusion dynamics, while a learnable stochastic forcing function characterizes structural ambiguity and representation noise. Predictive uncertainty is directly quantified through the variability of stochastic representation trajectories, providing an intrinsic uncertainty measure beyond post-hoc confidence scores. We formulate HyperNSD with neural drift and diffusion networks, enabling joint learning of prediction and uncertainty propagation. Theoretical analyses establish well posedness, perturbation stability,permutation equivariance, and numerical convergence of the proposed stochastic dynamics. Experiments on multiple hypergraph benchmarks demonstrate that HyperNSD achieves reliable uncertainty estimation for out-of-distribution and misclassification detection while preserving competitive prediction accuracy. These results provide a principled stochastic-dynamical framework for trustworthy higher-order representation learning.

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Other7/8/2026

A Word-Level Digital Reader of the Prasthanatrayi with Sankara's Bhasya: Corpus, Method, and an Open, Offline Reading Aid for the Advaita Vedanta Canon

The Prasthanatrayi -- the ten principal Upanisads, the Brahmasutra, and the Bhagavadgita, with Sankara's commentaries (bhasya) -- is the foundational corpus of Advaita Vedanta. Continuous euphonic combination (sandhi), long compounds (samasa), and dense scholastic prose make it hard to read at the word level: where one word ends, and what each word means grammatically, are both obscured. We present an open, fully offline, word-level digital reader of the entire Prasthanatrayi with Sankara's bhasya. Every word -- of both the root text (mula) and the commentary -- is clickable and resolves to a pop-up giving its split (padaccheda), morphological analysis, and gloss. Because every word carries a lemma, the reader also acts as a concordance: a search on a dictionary headword retrieves all of that word's inflected and sandhi-hidden occurrences, and its occurrences inside compounds, across both layers. The resource covers thirteen commentarial units (2,971 verses, sutras, and prose sections; 36,881 analysed word-occurrences of root text) and a global dictionary of 95,587 distinct commentarial surface forms. We describe the corpus, the hybrid pipeline -- a rule-based sandhi splitter over an inflected-form lexicon and attested-corpus look-ups, with LLM-assisted analysis under an adversarial two-pass verification protocol -- and a durable human-review loop whose corrections survive every regeneration. An intrinsic evaluation against independent Sanskrit resources finds high-confidence analyses agree with an authoritative inflectional lexicon on over 99% of attested forms, and a band-blind adjudication confirms that quality degrades predictably across confidence bands, with errors concentrated in the low-confidence tier the review loop targets. The reader is a single self-contained HTML file needing no server or network, offered as a freely redistributable teaching and reading aid.

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Other7/8/2026

Billions of Sketches Reveal Hidden Cultural Variation in Human Concepts

Claims about the universality of human concepts have been predominantly assessed through linguistic similarity across languages and cultures. However, words are effective as communication devices because they compress rich experiential variation into shared conventions, potentially obscuring hidden individual and cultural differences in how concepts are mentally represented. Here, we analyse 2.6 billion human-made sketches of common concepts from 236 countries and territories to examine conceptual structure through people's visual imagination. Consistent with recent work on image-based cognition, we find that single concepts unfold into multiple distinct visual exemplars, revealing latent information about similarities and differences in conceptual structure across cultures. This variation is strongest for concepts involving haptic interaction, suggesting that visual imagery reflects variation in embodied experience as much as conventional definitions. Comparing embedding models of sketches with word embedding models across languages, we find that their geometries diverge, with visual representations preserving rich semantic and cultural structure that language models compress. Cross-cultural similarities derived from sketches align 45% more closely with established cultural distances than do text-based measures. Together, these results suggest that patterns of human conceptual universality may depend critically on the modality through which concepts are measured, with large-scale sketching providing a direct, high-resolution probe of conceptual diversity across embodied and cultural dimensions of thought.

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Other7/8/2026

FMMVCC: Fuzzy Mamba-based Multi-View Contrastive Clustering for Univariate Time Series

In many realistic scenarios, large volumes of time series data are generated with limited or expensive annotations. This limitation makes supervised learning methods difficult to apply and leads to the use of unsupervised approaches capable of discovering meaningful structures directly from raw data. Clustering therefore plays a crucial role in organizing time series into groups that share similar temporal patterns, enabling exploratory analysis and downstream tasks without requiring manual labeling. However, existing deep clustering methods often struggle to capture long-range temporal dependencies or rely on architectures with high computational cost. This paper introduces FMMVCC, a Mamba-based deep clustering framework for time series that leverages state space sequence modeling to efficiently learn temporal representations with linear complexity. Additionally, it utilizes multi-view self-supervised learning with temporal masking and augmentations. Experimental evaluation in 15 benchmark datasets proves that FMMVCC consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving the best overall performance in 29 of 60 total metric evaluations and the highest average rank in all tested scenarios.

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Other7/8/2026

DiPhon: Diffusion on Graphons for Scalable Graph Generation

Diffusion models represent a leading paradigm for graph generation, with notable impact in domains such as molecular design. Yet, scaling these models to large graphs remains an open problem. We approach this question in the dense-graph setting through the lens of graphons, the size-agnostic limit objects of dense graph sequences, to study how structural graph statistics behave across node-size scales. This perspective leads to DiPhon, a diffusion framework for size-scalable graph generation. Specifically, we formulate a continuous diffusion process on the graphon space via a Jacobi stochastic differential equation (SDE), and propose DiPhon, a discretized graph-level process that mimics these dynamics on finite graphs. We further derive the corresponding reverse-time process, which requires access to the marginal score. For the Jacobi process, this score interestingly admits a tractable form, which we estimate from data via graph denoising and plug into the reverse process to generate graph samples. We prove that DiPhon matches exactly the first moment of the marginal distributions induced by the continuous graphon process, and approximates the second moment up to a closed-form discrepancy. Thus, DiPhon inherits key size-agnostic statistical properties of the graphon dynamics, providing a principled route toward scalable graph generation. Empirically, we demonstrate this scalability by training on small graphs and generating progressively larger graphs at inference time, without retraining, while preserving their core topological properties.

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Other7/8/2026

Memory Scarcity, Open Models, and the Restructuring of the AI Industry, 2026-2030 -- A quantitative scenario analysis of inference economics, training-cost divergence, and infrastructure solvency

We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (near-Shannon-limit KV-cache compression, lightweight local runtimes), and the entry of Meta and xAI into compute resale on fleets bought before the memory repricing. Formulating inference economics in dollars per petabyte of bandwidth delivered (\$/PB) -- model-agnostic for bandwidth-bound decode -- we show the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes: a depreciation conveyor delivers newly amortized fleets to incumbents faster than hardware prices normalize (3.2x in 2026, 1.9x in 2027, re-widening to 3-4x by 2029-30). Training bifurcates into a luxury tier (\$18-38B per frontier run by 2030) and a mass tier (previous-frontier parity via RL/distillation falling toward \$5M). Solvency of the announced buildout is confined to a corridor requiring roughly 2x annual token-demand growth for four years with sticky premium pricing; a measurement critique shows public token trackers overstate monetizable demand, and all pre-Q2-2026 projections predate the industry's shift from token maximization to token minimization. A vintage-breakeven analysis finds 2026 and 2028-29 capacity each fatally exposed to one pricing regime, with only the 2027 vintage robust. A greenfield custom-silicon entrant removes the merchant margin but not the memory premium (central outcome: 25% success/34% mediocre/41% loss, improvable via staged go/no-go gates). China's LineShine LX2 -- domestic HBM on a standard ISA -- decouples its cost curve from the memory crisis. Scenario probabilities: Rotating Landlord Oligopoly 25%, Commoditization Crash 25%, Jevons Absorption 20%, System-Layer Re-differentiation 18%, Geopolitical Bifurcation 12%. Solvency now depends on monetized bandwidth demand, premium stickiness, and vintage ownership.

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Other7/8/2026

Recovering Latent Structures after Variational Bayesian Variable Selection: Fit Assessment and Factor-Number Selection in Partially Exploratory Factor Analysis

In partially exploratory factor analysis (PEFA), the loading structure and factor numbers are weakly specified. The regularized variational approximation for partially confirmatory factor analysis (PCFA VA) recovers this structure via Bayesian variable selection, using spike and slab priors to assign inclusion probabilities to unspecified loadings. This research introduces a post selection assessment framework for this approach. We convert converged solutions into covariance models using either hard selection (thresholding probabilities into a sparse pattern) or soft selection (retaining them as weights for effective parameter counts). We derive the resulting degrees of freedom, absolute fit diagnostics (RMSEA, SRMR, CFI, TLI), and relative criteria (AIC, BIC, ELBO). To determine factor numbers, we propose a scale free gain rule with a sustained drop guard. Simulations show absolute indices successfully track loading recovery and flag under factoring. While raw criteria over factor, our gain rule accurately recovers true dimensionality, with the ELBO variant proving most robust. Finally, a 100 item PID 5 example demonstrates that our model fits better than a confirmatory 25 facet model and concordantly recovers major structures across disjoint specifications.

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Other7/8/2026

From Text to Parameters: Predicting Item Parameters from Embedding Regularization with Reliability and Design Ceilings

Newly developed items must ordinarily be field tested before their psychometric properties are known, creating a cold start problem for item calibration. Predicting item parameters from features is a long standing measurement problem dating back to the Linear Logistic Test Model; modern text embeddings now automate the design matrices traditionally specified by hand. We propose an evaluation framework combining regularized regression on item text embeddings, repeated cross validated R squared reported with its resampling standard deviation, and two performance upper bounds: a reliability ceiling derived from parameter standard errors, and a design ceiling derived from simulation based power calibration. Applying this framework to a mathematics item bank (EEDI) and a medical licensure benchmark (BEA 2024), we find that item difficulty is highly predictable from text (repeated cross validated R squared = 0.53, or about 57% of its reliability ceiling), whereas discrimination and pseudo guessing appear less predictable. However, evaluating these results against our ceilings reveals that this apparent hierarchy stems from target reliability rather than text signal strength: text uniformly recovers 57 to 63% of the reliable variance across difficulty targets, whereas the 3PL pseudo guessing parameter has a reliability ceiling near zero, making it an unviable target at current precision. On BEA, embedding based regression matches leaderboard RMSE despite explaining almost no variance, highlighting the critical need for scale free metrics and explicit ceilings in benchmarking. Finally, we show that a single train and test split can inflate apparent accuracy by 0.1 to 0.15 in R squared, underscoring the necessity of repeated cross validation for calibration support applications and future benchmark construction.

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